COVID Vaccine
Two Futures
Thank God we have a vaccine. There are 2 ways COVID ends. One, nearly everyone gets it, or two, a vaccine.
A Dark Future
The almost-everyone-gets-it outcome means another 500,000 Canadians have a week-long hospital stay and 100,000 additional deaths in Canada. That is an optimistic forecast. That assumes COVID becomes less severe than it is now. So far, fewer than 1 in 25 Canadians has had COVID. It would probably take a few years for COVID to run its course, and the economy would be in tatters. Not ideal.
Vaccines
Vaccines are not a miracle cure. Some, like flu vaccines, prevent only half of flus and the protection lasts less than a year. But the COVID vaccines are very effective. They prevent 95% of COVID cases with limited side effects. Vaccines have been a huge help to humanity, going back to the first vaccine, the smallpox vaccine.
Smallpox Case
Smallpox was once the deadliest disease. In the 1900s, it killed far, far more people than all the world wars combined. Smallpox is now extinct, thanks to vaccinations. No one dies of smallpox, and it is not even necessary to get a smallpox vaccine. For this, you can thank the vaccine developer but also those who took the vaccine. Smallpox vaccines left a nice size mark on the shoulder. If you’re old enough, you likely have one. If you do, you were part of making smallpox extinct.
COVID Vaccine Tech
So far, two companies have had COVID vaccines approved---Pfizer and Moderna. Both the Pfizer and Moderna COVID vaccines are made using a process that copies molecules from the spikes on the shell of the virus. These spikes on the outside of the virus act like entry keys for the virus to unlock and get into cells. (See the last issue for additional information on COVID). These ‘entry keys’ on the spikes are made from a molecule called RNA, or specifically, mRNA---messenger RNA.
Fingerprint ID
The vaccine copies a few of these fragments. When you get the vaccine, these molecule fragments are recognized as foreign, and your body begins making antibodies that match them. These antibodies can then identify any COVID-19 virus that you come in contact with. It’s like putting the COVID virus on a wanted poster, and warning your body to be on the lookout for it. The RNA fragments in the vaccines cannot infect you with the virus because they are only bits and pieces of the shell, but they are just enough so your immune system can quickly identify the real virus.
Fat Bubbles
In the vaccines, these RNA fragments are put into tiny droplets of fat. These droplets are so tiny that if they are magnified 1,000 times, they are still invisible. These little bubbles of fat protect the fragile RNA fragments and help them be absorbed.
No Preservatives
The vaccines also have trace amounts of salt and sugar. These manage the acidity and keep the fat bubbles from sticking to each other. There is no mercury or any other kind of preservative. Because of the ultra-cold storage, no preservatives are necessary. This also means that the vaccine can only be kept at room temperature for a day.
Cold Protection
The vaccine must be stored at -70℃ because the long, thin molecule fragments that make the vaccine work are very fragile. Colder temperatures are not as destructive to these fragile molecules. Heat, which is really vibration, is like a tiny jackhammer on the molecules. Less heat means less hammering of the fragile molecules.
Huge Testing
The Pfizer vaccine tests included 45,000 people and the Moderna one 30,000. In each test, half of the people were given a vaccine, and half were given a ‘pretend’ vaccine---a placebo. Who got the real or the placebo was hidden from patients and researchers until the end. Compared to the pretend vaccine, the real vaccine prevented 95% of the COVID infections.
How Long, How Often
It is not known how long the vaccine protection will last after getting the shot. The immune system slowly gets rid of unused antibodies but keeps some around. Some vaccines, like the flu vaccine, don’t even last a year, and others, like measles, last a lifetime. Others, like the smallpox vaccine, protected against infections only for decades but gave lifelong protection against death from smallpox.
Vaccine Cost
There is no free lunch. Everything costs something. Vaccines come at a cost, and I don’t mean money cost, although that was pretty high. Vaccines have side effects. All medicines have side effects.
Side Effects
For the COVID vaccines, the most common side effect is a pain in the arm where you get the shot. The other side effects in order of decreasing frequency are fatigue, headache, muscle pain, chills, fever, and diarrhea. No severe reactions were recorded in the tests. The UK had potential allergic reactions in 2 very sensitive people, but EpiPens prevented any problems. It’s also important to remember that many of these same side effects also occurred in those who got the placebo vaccine instead of the real one (but less often for the placebo). Interestingly, the side effects of the COVID vaccines were lower in older people, exactly the people who benefit most from the vaccines.
Weighing Known Risks
So far, about 1 out of 4 people over 70 who get COVID end up in the hospital. Of those who end up in the hospital, 1 out of 5 end up in the ICU. Even if it’s a 5% chance of landing in the hospital for a week, it’s worth some minor vaccine side effects. Even for 50-year-olds, the hospitalization rates are 10% (probably not quite that high because some people with COVID never get tested). The COVID hospitalization risks are well-known. In many places, more than half of all hospital beds are filled with COVID patients. The vaccine, on the other hand, has no serious known side effects.
Long-Term Unknowns
The long-term effects of getting the vaccine are unknown. But also unknown are the long-term effects of COVID. There is some evidence that COVID causes long-term damage, but it is unknown. There is a higher likelihood that COVID will cause long-term problems than the vaccine. So, of the two unknowns, the larger long-term risk is probably COVID.
The Young
The argument for vaccinating those younger than 30 is weaker. This group has a much lower risk of hospitalization or death from COVID. The risk with the young is that they become a pool of infection for the older.
We’re in This Together
In our community, we can be givers or takers. We can choose to take advantage of our community, or we can choose to advantage our community. With vaccines, you’re a giver if you are a taker, a taker of the vaccine. Your discomfort from the side effects helps your community and the country get over COVID. If you get the vaccine, you can feel good that you are helping your community.
Vaccine Free Ride
In free countries, the free-rider problem can’t be eliminated. A few people can get a free ride on the vaccinations of others. If 80% of the population is vaccinated, the chance of COVID spreading drops. The 20% unvaccinated get a free ride at the expense of the vaccinated. But if everyone avoids the vaccine, everyone suffers.
Choose Wisely
We all have to make our own choice of whether to take the vaccine. Thankfully, in Canada, we are free to make our own health care choices. The risks of COVID are largely known, weigh those against the risks of the vaccines. Choose to maximize your health and dignity, as well as the health of the community.
